Continuity and Change in Iran's Rivalry Patterns

2011 Joint Area Centers Symposium
Session 2: Iran in Global Perspectives

"Continuity and Change in Iran's Rivalry Patterns"
Paul Diehl (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Chair: Colin Flint (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

This presentation focuses on patterns over time associated with the participation of Iran in interstate rivalries, repeated militarized competition between the same pair of states over an extended period of time (as opposed to one-shot crises). The period covered is 1855-2006 and seven rivalries meet the operational criteria outlined in the author’s earlier work on rivalries. The analysis considers the frequency and density of militarized confrontations in those rivalries with respect to changes over time, including regime change (e.g., Shah to Khomeini), nuclear weapons development, and the issues at stake in the rivalries. Consideration is also given to how rivalries end, based on the academic literature, and what implications exist for extant rivalries involving Iran.